Guess it's time for my post-Super Tuesday update.
Bottom line is as follows, according to MSNBC.
Sen. Obama: 838 delegates
Sen. Clinton: 834 delegates
Former Sen. Edwards: 26 delegates but he dropped out so it doesn't matter
Democrats need 2,025 for a nomination.
Sen. McCain: 720 delegates
Former Gov. Romney: 256 delegates
Former Gov. Huckabee: 194 delegates
Rep. Paul: 14 delegates
Republicans need 1,191 for a nomination
My thoughts are that the delegates from Florida and Michigan will, in fact, be seated at the Democratic convention in Denver in August. Which gives Senator Clinton a HUGE boost.
So nothing terribly decisive or upsetting coming out of Super Tuesday.
All in all, not as eventful a night as I had expected. Though Sen. Obama ultimately did come out ahead, which I had not been expecting. Looks like our little Matt Santos is picking up speed.
Kansas, Lousiana, Nebraska, and Washington all have primaries/caucuses on Saturday, followed by Maine Dem on Sunday, and the Potomac Primary on Tuesday the 12th.
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
06 February 2008
04 February 2008
La Palabra
Quick overview of Super Tuesday.
Tomorrow 24 states are holding primaries (in 2004 Super Tuesday had the primaries of 10 states, so that really is a lot).
The reason this is such a big deal, especially to the Democratic party, is that 52% of all delegates available are up for grabs. For the Republicans, it's 41%. Something like 1,700 delegates will be pledged for the Democrats. I don't know what the number is for Republicans.
To get the nomination at the convention in August for Dems, September for Reps, a candidate has to have 2,025 delegates.
So, in all likelihood, the Republicans will come out of tomorrow with a nominee. This is because a lot (most?) of the Republican primaries are winner-takes-all. So if in Alabama McCain gets 33% of the vote and Romney gets 32% and Huckabee gets 15% and Ron Paul gets -%500 (yes, that's negative five hundred percent), McCain gets all 48 Republican delegates from Alabama.
However, it is unlikely, in my opinion, that the Democrats will come out of Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday with a nominee. This is because a lot (most?) of the Democratic primaries are proportional, though I think there's a fancier name that is the real name of that. So if in Connecticut, Clinton gets 52% of the vote and Obama gets 47%, then Clinton gets 32 delegates and Obama has 28 Democratic delegates from Connecticut.
Okay so it's actually a lot more complicated than that, because there are superdelegates and unpledged delegates and states with caucuses and states with people on the ballot who have dropped out and stupid shit like that, but we're just going to ignore that and understand it for how it is in a simplified manner.
But! Back to how I think there won't be a nominee for the Democrats tomorrow. Because Obama gained on Clinton so much (they're about even in the national polls, but that doesn't mean anything per state), he could get just about as many delegates tomorrow as she. It's going to depend a lot on how much he gained in California, especially, because California provides 22% of all the delegates in the Democratic party.
And that was a crash course in the messed up qualities of the fabulous day we call Super Tuesday, which will bring much festivities, especially as it coincides with Mardi Gras. I'm so into that. I'm giving up Republicans for Lent.
...
That was a joke. I have many Republican friends who I love and will be seeing often and willingly for the next 40 days.
Tomorrow 24 states are holding primaries (in 2004 Super Tuesday had the primaries of 10 states, so that really is a lot).
The reason this is such a big deal, especially to the Democratic party, is that 52% of all delegates available are up for grabs. For the Republicans, it's 41%. Something like 1,700 delegates will be pledged for the Democrats. I don't know what the number is for Republicans.
To get the nomination at the convention in August for Dems, September for Reps, a candidate has to have 2,025 delegates.
So, in all likelihood, the Republicans will come out of tomorrow with a nominee. This is because a lot (most?) of the Republican primaries are winner-takes-all. So if in Alabama McCain gets 33% of the vote and Romney gets 32% and Huckabee gets 15% and Ron Paul gets -%500 (yes, that's negative five hundred percent), McCain gets all 48 Republican delegates from Alabama.
However, it is unlikely, in my opinion, that the Democrats will come out of Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday with a nominee. This is because a lot (most?) of the Democratic primaries are proportional, though I think there's a fancier name that is the real name of that. So if in Connecticut, Clinton gets 52% of the vote and Obama gets 47%, then Clinton gets 32 delegates and Obama has 28 Democratic delegates from Connecticut.
Okay so it's actually a lot more complicated than that, because there are superdelegates and unpledged delegates and states with caucuses and states with people on the ballot who have dropped out and stupid shit like that, but we're just going to ignore that and understand it for how it is in a simplified manner.
But! Back to how I think there won't be a nominee for the Democrats tomorrow. Because Obama gained on Clinton so much (they're about even in the national polls, but that doesn't mean anything per state), he could get just about as many delegates tomorrow as she. It's going to depend a lot on how much he gained in California, especially, because California provides 22% of all the delegates in the Democratic party.
And that was a crash course in the messed up qualities of the fabulous day we call Super Tuesday, which will bring much festivities, especially as it coincides with Mardi Gras. I'm so into that. I'm giving up Republicans for Lent.
...
That was a joke. I have many Republican friends who I love and will be seeing often and willingly for the next 40 days.
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